RADIO FREE EUROPE/RADIO LIBERTY, PRAGUE, CZECH REPUBLIC
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RFE/RL NEWSLINE  18 May 1999

HUNGARY OPPOSES INVASION OF YUGOSLAVIA FROM NORTH.
Foreign Minister Janos Martonyi said on 17 May that the
Hungarian leadership is against the use of Hungary as a
launching site for any potential NATO ground operation
against Yugoslavia. He said an invasion from the north
appears relatively smooth in military terms and could be
an effective solution, but the political risk is high. A
ground operation "is not in our interest in Central
Europe," Martonyi said, adding that "this war can be won
from the air." In other news, ethnic Hungarians in
Vojvodina are working on an autonomy concept and want to
ensure that the status of the province is included in an
eventual peace agreement on Kosova, Laszlo Jozsa, deputy
chairman of the Federation of Vojvodina Hungarians, told
Hungarian media on 17 May. MSZ

RUSSIAN-HUNGARIAN OIL TRANSIT TALKS. Acting Russian
Trade Minister Georgii Gabunia said Russia is engaged in
talks with Budapest over the transport of "metal items"
and oil products through Hungary to Yugoslavia, RIA
Novosti reported on 17 May. He reproached Hungary for
employing "discriminatory transit terms." If the parties
fail to come to an agreement, Gabunia said, Russia may
retaliate with trade sanctions. VG


END NOTE

SCHUSTER LIKELY TO DEFEAT MECIAR IN RUN-OFF

By Ron Synovitz

	The first round of voting in Slovakia's
presidential election saw Kosice Mayor Rudolf Schuster
and former Slovak Prime Minister Vladimir Meciar advance
to a run-off on 29 May. If turnout is similar to the 74
percent in the 15 May first round, Schuster appears
likely to become Slovakia's first directly elected
president.
	According to the Slovak Election Commission,
Schuster, who is the official candidate of Slovakia's
governing coalition, won 47 percent of the first-round
vote, while about 37 percent supported Meciar.
	Third among the nine candidates was Magda
Vasaryova, a former actress who gathered 6.6 percent of
the vote on an independent ticket. She was followed by
independent Ivan Mjartan, with about 3.6 percent, and
Jan Slota of the Slovak National Party, with 2.5
percent. While Meciar could get some votes from backers
of Mjartan and Slota in the runoff, their combined
cross-over vote would be insufficient to push him ahead
of Schuster.
	Meanwhile, most of Vasaryova's supporters are
believed to be vehemently opposed to Meciar. There is
little likelihood that the former prime minister will
gain votes from them. Yet many of Vasaryova's backers
may choose to abstain from the runoff ballot rather than
support Schuster. That is largely because of Schuster's
background as a member of the Slovak Communist Party's
Central Committee before the collapse of communist rule
in 1989.
	Other political leaders who earlier opposed
Schuster because of his communist background have now
begun announcing their support for him as the "anti-
Meciar" candidate. Most important among them is Justice
Minister Jan Carnogursky, who chairs the governing
coalition's Christian Democratic Movement.
	Schuster told RFE/RL he expects unity over the run-
off within the coalition, which first joined forces to
defeat Meciar in parliamentary elections eight months
ago. "I think that the citizens had the opportunity to
gauge the degree to which we are united," he commented,
"and now we shouldn't even talk about unity because
there are only two candidates. We have only two
possibilities. Either a part of the coalition will
support Mr. Meciar or the whole coalition will support
me. There is no other alternative.... Now we have to act
if we want to confirm the change that happened [in last
year's parliamentary elections]."
	First round exit polls suggest that as many as 92
percent of Slovakia's ethnic Hungarian voters supported
Schuster. That development, according to the mayor,
shows the strength of the coalition. But he also warned
against xenophobic distortions of those statistics.
	"I have no problem with [the support I have from
ethnic Hungarians]. It is Meciar's problem. Meciar
separates Slovak society. I unify it. This is the first
evidence that the Hungarian minority can support the
candidate of a coalition.... The Hungarians have kept
their coalition promise. I see only a positive
development in that, not negative."
	Meciar, who was Slovak prime minister for most of
the period from 1992 to 1998, helped trigger the breakup
of Czechoslovakia in 1993. Western leaders often
criticized what was seen as the authoritarian manner of
his rule, which they cited as the reason Slovakia has
not been invited to join either NATO or the front-
ranking candidate states for EU membership.
	But Meciar remains popular in rural communities,
and he retains political influence through his allies
who still control top management positions in major
state companies. Meciar's nationalist rhetoric also
could appeal to the unemployed, who have seen little
improvement in their economic situation since last
year's elections.
	Tibor Cabaj, parliamentary leader of Meciar's
Movement for a Democratic Slovakia (HZDS), said he does
not see Meciar's second place as a failure. In fact, the
37 percent of the vote that Meciar gathered was much
higher than pre-election polls had predicted.
	While Slovakia's presidency is largely a ceremonial
office, Western business leaders in Bratislava have been
watching the ballot closely to determine whether Meciar
has a political future in the country. If Meciar loses,
one effect could be speedier management reforms at state
companies. Such reforms are seen by the IMF and the
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development as a
key to increasing productivity and foreign investment in
Slovakia.

The author is an RFE/RL correspondent based in Prague.

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